Things We Do Because of the Difficulty of Thought

Thinking is hard.

As a result, we try to make use of mental shortcuts to make decisions faster.

These shortcuts are called heuristics, and while they are useful, many times, they lead us down rabbit holes.

The other day, I sat close to a dude in a meeting.

As we got talking, I found that he had relatives from the Middle East.

I concluded that he was a foreigner and a student.

Well, it turns out that I was wrong on both counts.

The dude was neither a student, nor a foreigner, and heuristics lost yet another battle.

The one that amuses me the most is the media’s use of statistics.

You hear stuff like, “70% of people who eat ABC will have XYZ in ten years”

What they don’t tell you is the number of people they are basing that statistic on.

70% of 100000 is 70000 and if that’s the case, maybe ABC has the effect they claim it has.

However, 70% of 10 is 7 people!!!

I’m not saying 7 people are not important, but any effects observed in them is likely due to causes other than eating ABC.

But here’s the interesting thing: Researchers almost always tell you all the numbers involved in arriving at their conclusions.

Yet, the media likes to conveniently ignore the details, while focusing on sensationalism.

And because of heuristics, we gobble up anything they place before us – hook, line, and sinker.

So, what’s my point in all these?

Jesus said, ‘…be wise as serpents, and harmless as doves’ (Matthew 10:16).

A good way towards manifesting that wisdom is knowing when you are misperceiving the truth because of an ‘over-reliance’ on heuristics.

I’m not asking you to be over-analytical and critical in every situation.

All I’m telling you to do is to be aware.

It can change your life!

The Battle of Dunkirk and the Power in the Law of Cognizance

‘Unless you become aware of the spiritual realities, you can never profit from them’

– The Law of Cognizance

The year 1940 saw the Nazi German army at the height of its military superiority during World War II.

At the Battle of Dunkirk, the Allied armies, comprising mostly of British and French soldiers found themselves in a very precarious situation.

The German soldiers had ruthlessly taken advantage of an oversight in the French defensive line, while hitherto neutral nearby nations like the Netherlands and Belgium had also surrendered to the Germans.

This resulted in the Allied forces outmaneuvered and trapped by the German soldiers in all directions.

In addition, the Germans had planes that could fly over the trapped Allied armies and make short work of them with powerful bombs.

And to make matters worse for the Allied forces, retreat was impossible because they were bottled up in a water corridor that was about 97 kilometers deep and 24 kilometers long. There was no way the Allied armies were going to swim the long way home to escape their predicament.

Yet, over the course of 10 days, from May 26 – June 4, 1940, more than 300,000 Allied soldiers were able to escape from Dunkirk with the aid of boats and ships sent from England.

It turned out that for some eerie reasons, the German army momentarily halted its advance towards the trapped soldiers.

For three whole days!

That was more than enough time for the Allied forces to organize their evacuation efforts.

To this day, there is no consensus on why the German army decided to slow down their offensive at Dunkirk for three whole days, when the logical thing to do would have been to continue charging towards the trapped Allied armies and totally crushing them.

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In my opinion, the actions of the German army at the Battle of Dunkirk in 1940 will continue to be a cause of bewilderment to historians for one simple reason. Historians always analyze past events from a solely physical paradigm.

On the other hand, the accounts of war told in the Bible give a more complete picture of the variables that determine the results of different battles fought.

For instance, 1 Chronicles 14:10-17 gives an account of two battles fought between the Israeli army and that of the Philistines.

Before the first battle, King David of the Israeli army inquired from God to see whether he should go ahead and engage the enemy. God gave the king the green light and the result was a rout in favor of Israel.

Soon, another battle with the same enemy became imminent and David inquired of God again – refusing to take spiritual dynamics for granted.

This time, however, God’s instructions were slightly different.

‘…and God said unto him, Go not up after them; turn away from them, and come upon them over against the mulberry trees. And it shall be, when thou shalt hear a sound of going in the tops of the mulberry trees, that then thou shalt go out to battle: for God is gone forth before thee to smite the host of the Philistines. – 1 Chronicles 14:14-15

God asked David to stand under the shade of mulberry trees and listen for the sounds of marching feet!

To the logical mind, that did not make any sense whatsoever.

For starters, you don’t stand idle when the threat of war is real. You gather your resources and prepare your army for battle.

In addition, it is impossible to march on branches and leaves still attached to the trunk of a tree. Besides, to the natural mind, merely standing under a tree to listen for a sound that others cannot hear is hardly a military strategy, especially when you know that the enemy is going to be better prepared because of their thirst for revenge.

But King David had an awareness of the spiritual realities available to him and the children of Israel that day.

He knew that the factors that determine victory in battle were more than the number of soldiers, horses, and chariots that an army had. David had an understanding that failure on his part to stay aware of the spiritual variables of war could cost him and his army severe losses.

David’s choice to stay consistently aware of the dynamics of the spiritual realm brought him and his army their desired results.

‘David therefore did as God commanded him: and they smote the host of the Philistines from Gibeon even to Gazer. And the fame of David went out into all lands; and the Lord brought the fear of him upon all nations.’ – 1 Chronicles 14:10-17

Interestingly, there were spiritual dynamics at play during the Battle of Dunkirk that contemporary historians sometimes overlook during their analyses.

Just before the British military leaders embarked on sending boats and ships to evacuate the trapped Allied armies, the king of England at the time, King George VI called for a National Day of Prayer where he implored everyone under his jurisdiction to cry out to God for divine help. And his people responded, as there are eyewitness accounts, as well as photographs proving that the entire nation went on their knees, crying out to God for deliverance.

Just like King David centuries before him, King George VI understood that there were spiritual realities that were available to him and his nation.

As the nation took advantage of their connection to God’s Strength, Wisdom and Power in the spiritual realm, interesting events were unfolding in the physical realm.

As mentioned earlier, first, the German authorities decided not to press their advantage at Dunkirk for three whole days.

Then, the weather at the battlefield became very cloudy, such that it was not possible for the Germans to use their bomber planes in making life unbearable for the trapped Allied armies.

Even more remarkable, the water corridor was very calm, such that the evacuation efforts of the Allied armies via ships and boats were much easier than it would have been had the waters been turbulent.

Understand this: Talent, planning, and strategy will only take you so far. If you fail to take cognizance of the influence of the spiritual realm on events in the physical realm, you will always fall short in the long run.

What I Learned from a Bad Driving Habit

I only started driving in 2017.

In those early days, I remember being crippled with anxiety whenever there were more than two vehicles on the road.

Back then, crawling at 30 miles per hour was very fast.

However, for me, the holy grail of driving was the ability to drive with one hand. You see, I always held the steering wheel with both hands and my brain would always fry whenever someone tried to hold a conversation with me as I drove.

In contrast, I saw other people flawlessly executing what I was incapable of doing.

As I saw other drivers use one hand to control a 4000-pound vehicle as they nonchalantly engaged in conversations with passengers, I could not help but grow green with envy every single time.

The question that never seemed to leave my mind was this: How are these guys able to drive a car with just one hand?

Fast forward to a couple of months ago, my boss and I traveled for a conference.

In the car, we talked about the finer details of the presentation we were scheduled to deliver together the following day.

Of course, I was the cool driver cruising along the highway — with just one hand on the steering wheel!

That’s when it occurred to me that I had been doing this bad habit for almost two years and I did not even know it!


If you think I am advocating for one-handed driving, you are missing my point.

The bigger picture is the process that took me from the ‘Day Crawler’ in 2017 to the ‘Cool Cruiser’ a couple of years later.

Now that I think about it, the one thing that transformed me from one state to the other is so obvious.

Consistency!

I became a better, more confident driver because I continued to drive every day and in every circumstance.

I drove in the rain.

I drove in the snow.

I drove at night.

I drove in the fog.

The more I drove, and the more contexts I drove in, the better I became as a driver.

Consistency made me a better driver!

At the end of every year, people give different motivational talks about how you need to keep reinventing yourself every year.

They talk about how it is essential for you to make plans for the new year to be your best year yet.

However, while I am all for planning and reinvention, I don’t know why people wait till the end of the year before they make such moves.

It’s not like your life stops and resets at the end of every year.

The earth does not stop revolving around the sun to give everyone a breather at the end of each year.

Yet, we are quick to hop on the bandwagon of those who conveniently advocate for reinventing yourself every year — forgetting the rewards that may arise from persisting with your current path.


If you really want to be successful in any field of endeavor, you need to reflect on previous successes you’ve experienced in your life.

If none comes to your mind, think about the following:

You did not learn to walk because you planned it. Rather, you learned to walk because you were consistent.

You did not learn to write alphabets because you reinvented yourself, you learned because you were consistent.

If you’ve earned a degree, it happened because your study habits were consistent over the duration of your schooling.

Consider this quote I have been meditating on for some days now,

He that tilleth his land shall be satisfied with bread; but he that followeth after vain persons is void of understanding

– King Solomon (Proverbs 12:11)

Every step of the farming process is a testament to the power of consistency.

A half-hearted attempt to clear the weeds on a farm will make it impossible to plant seeds.

A half-hearted attempt to plant seeds will jeopardize the farmer’s harvest when it is time.

Even harvesting is dependent on consistency. The farmer does not harvest half-way before trying to reinvent himself into a shepherd. Rather, when the crops are ripe, he goes all in and does not relent until he’s done.

On the other hand, there are the inconsistent ones who are tossed to and fro by the different doctrines pushed by the different thought leaders.

People in this camp are left overwhelmed with information, even as they sink into the cesspool of action paralysis…until the end of the following year when they get their next fix of reinvention talk.


If you are ready to thrive, you do not need to wait till the end of the year to make your desired change happen.

All you need is consistency, and here are 3 tips that will keep you on track.

1. Eliminate Ruthlessly

As humans, we are finite.

We can only be in one place at a time.

We only have enough resources for some things, but not everything.

As a result, we need to deliberately select what we choose to focus our attention on.

Again, when you think about the previous successes you’ve experienced in your life and you’d find them rife with elimination.

To walk, you needed to eliminate crawling.

To write, you needed to eliminate the uncoordinated hand movements that were not giving you the desired symbols.

Staying consistent becomes a simple ordeal when you ruthlessly eliminate the unessential and concentrate on what matters.

2. Design an Enabling Environment

When the defaults in your environment promote the performance of your desired behavior, you become more consistent at it.

For instance, if you want to be more productive with your time, you could redesign your physical space such that your phone is in a separate room whenever you need to work.

In the same way, if you want to be a generally more healthy individual, it is easy to build consistency in healthy eating when your immediate environment is filled with healthy meals.

Your environment is not just limited to the physical inanimate objects in your surroundings. Rather, it also comprises of your social environment, which is made up of the people you surround yourself with.

Before I started driving, no one in my immediate circle could move a car to save their lives. I naturally started driving as soon as my social environment comprised of drivers.

Think about it: You are able to walk today because the people who surrounded you as a child all walked and encouraged you to walk.

Like I said in my post, The Adullam Ring: Outsourcing Decision-Making for Better Outcomes, when you form your Adullam Ring of like-minded individuals, you set yourself for success in the long-run. This happens because of the positive peer pressure that constrains you towards consistency. No one wants to be the one dragging the group back.

3. Track Your Progress

When you are in the habit of measuring how often to repeat a desired behavior, you are more likely to stick with it.

As you track each time you write that article, meditate, go to the gym, make that sales pitch, or do some predetermined action outside your comfort zone, you will literally see those tiny actions add up over time in your tracker.

Self-sourced motivation is the best kind of motivation, and there are very few things that can spark motivation than seeing yourself going on a streak.

I have provided a simple habit tracker that you can download and adapt for the purpose of tracking your habit (No squeeze page or sign up!)

Get your habit tracker (No sign-up!)

Gaining Clarity for Rational Decision Making: The Quality Decisions Accelerator (QDA)

In 1837, a 29-year-old Charles Darwin received an academic grant worth nearly $120,000 in 2019 dollars. Prior to that, he had embarked on a very successful exploratory voyage to Africa, Australia, and South America on the HMS Beagle from 1831 – 1836.

Darwin’s findings during the trip placed him at the cutting edge of the geological and biological research of his day. He would later go on to turn the scientific world upside down with his radical theories for which he’s still known today – almost 150 years after his death.

Yet, on this fateful summer afternoon in July 1838, Darwin penned the following words in his journal which reflected the more pressing matters on his heart:

Marry [pros]:

Children — (if it Please God) — Constant companion, (& friend in old age) who will feel interested in one, — object to be beloved & played with. — better than a dog anyhow.– Home, & someone to take care of house — Charms of music & female chit-chat. — These things good for one’s health. — but terrible loss of time. —

Not Marry [cons]:

Freedom to go where one liked — choice of Society & little of it. — Conversation of clever men at clubs — Not forced to visit relatives, & to bend in every trifle. — to have the expense & anxiety of children — perhaps quarelling — Loss of time. — cannot read in the Evenings — fatness & idleness — Anxiety & responsibility — less money for books &c — if many children forced to gain one’s bread. — (But then it is very bad for ones health to work too much)

Six months later, Darwin was married to Emma Wedgewood. Their marriage lasted 43 years and produced 10 children – many of whom went on to lead successful professional lives.

Needless to say, Charles Darwin made the right choice because he got something right.

Clarity! Clarity!! Clarity!!!

Many times, we make poor decisions, not because we are irrational or stupid, but because we lack clarity.

When we lack clarity about our desired preferences and outcomes, we end up making sub-optimal decisions. This is painfully obvious in circumstances where the choices we have to choose from are ambiguous.

As an example, if you are on a diet plan – once you have opportunity costs at the forefront of your mind, it is easy to choose between the calorie-dense chocolate cake and the tuna salad.

On the other hand, what do you do when you need to choose between relocating to another state and staying put where you are? How do you know whether it is time to go back to school, or whether your time is much better spent working your way up the corporate ladder?

That’s where the Quality Decisions Accelerator (QDA) comes in…

The Quality Decisions Accelerator (QDA) is a simple tool I created to bring you much-needed clarity when you need to make rational decisions in situations where the options are ambiguous and the opportunity costs not readily obvious.

I’m going to walk you through the process of using the QDA in six simple steps.

So, here goes…

Step One: Pray Before Using the QDA

I bet you did not see that coming.

If there’s anyone who embodies the perfect representation of rationality, it’s God.

God created us in His Image and Likeness and the only reason we appreciate and strive for rationality is because God placed that ability within us!

Unfortunately, because we live in a deeply humanistic society, we have strived to make God totally irrelevant in our decision making.

Consider what the sage King Solomon had to say about decision making:

‘In all thy ways acknowledge him, and he shall direct thy paths.’

Trying to make rational decisions without so much as a breath of prayer directed to God is like trying to navigate the Amazon forests without a map or a GPS – a total recipe for disaster.

When you pray to God before making decisions, even if it is for 30 seconds, you increase your chances of finding that ever-elusive clarity. More often than not, Step One is the farthest many people reach before God stirs up the answers from within them.

That’s not a bad thing!

Step Two: Be Calm in Your Mind and Emotions

If you find yourself having to make a high-impact decision (like buying a house or relocating to another city) when you are on an emotional rollercoaster, please refrain!

Periods of intense emotional reactivity are inconducive to rational decision making – rendering the QDA useless.

One key obstacle to clarity is a mind that is filled with mental clutter – many of which arise from emotions that are out of whack.

For best results with the QDA, you need to find a way to be calm.

Take a walk or listen to some relaxing music.

Do some meditative breathing.

Retreat to a room where you can have peace and quiet.

Do whatever you need to do to bring your mind and emotions back to a state of balance.

Step Three: Identify 5 – 7 Yardsticks That Will Influence Your Decision

If a person wanted to choose between going back to school for an advanced degree (Option B) and working a regular 9-5 job (Option A), some of the factors that may be considered include income, opportunities for growth, opportunities for networking, derived happiness, and free time for family.

These factors are what I call Yardsticks and they will be typed into the first column from the left on the QDA.

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To get accurate results from the QDA, it is essential that you select yardsticks that are important to you.

In the hypothetical situation above, if ‘income’ or ‘free time’ is not a factor that will influence your final choice, it is useless to include them as yardsticks.

Also, while I designed the QDA to have enough space for 10 yardsticks, you do not have to fill up every single gap. However, try to base your decisions on at least 5 – 7 yardsticks for more accurate results.

Step Four: Score Each Yardstick According to Importance

At this point, it should be obvious that not every yardstick will have the same gravity for everybody.

In choosing between going back to school and staying at a corporate job, ‘opportunities for growth’ and ‘derived happiness’ are definitely valid factors that should be considered before making such a high-impact decision.

However, ‘opportunities for growth’ may hold more weight for a fresh-faced graduate, even as ‘derived happiness’ may be valued higher from the perspective of a seasoned veteran.

This is why the subjective value of each yardstick needs to reflect in the QDA. As a result, in the column named Impact of Yardstick, you need to assign scores to each yardstick (on a scale of 1 – 10) to reflect how much they mean to you.

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In the hypothetical situation above, money is important to this decision-maker, but not as important as having free time and the Impact of Yardstick reflects that (scores of 5 and 7 respectively).

Step Five: Rate the Yardstick for Each Option and Watch the Magic Unfold

Now it’s time to fill up the Yardstick Ratings for each option.

From the example above, it is obvious that one will make more money being an employee than being a student. Hence, you see ‘income’ having a Yardstick Rating of ‘9’ for Option A (job) as opposed to a meager ‘1’ for Option B (school) for this hypothetical decision-maker.

Other Yardsticks are scored in a similar fashion.

The beautiful thing about the QDA is that it’s coded to automatically make arithmetic computations as you fill it up.

As a result, you see the Total scores as soon as you type your Yardstick Ratings.

Step Six: Make a Decision

If you have followed all the instructions to this point, you’d find that the option with the greatest Total at the bottom of the QDA is your preferred choice.

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Based on the hypothetical example, Yardstick Ratings and Impact of Yardstick reveal that the rational choice for this hypothetical decision-maker is to go back to school despite the fact that the job may provide more income.

As a Note of Finality…

I designed the Quality Decisions Accelerator (QDA) to be used as a living tool.

This means that the decisions you make by virtue of using this tool are not cast in stone.

Neither are the Yardsticks or the Yardstick Ratings and Impact of Yardstick numbers.

We all make decisions based on our current level of knowledge, as well as our unique perspectives at a particular point in time.

Since both our knowledge levels and perceptions are capable of evolving in the process of time, do not shy away from revisiting and revising your QDA to reassess your choices and sharpen your clarity.

The Adullam Ring: Outsourcing Decision-Making for Better Outcomes

What would you do if you were distressed, discontented with your lot in life, and in debt?

To get to that point, you’d probably acted irrationally by ignoring sunk costs to keep dumping precious resources on projects that are doomed to fail.

You might have also failed to keep opportunity costs at the forefront of your mind, and as a result, you now find yourself regretting and imagining what might have been.

Perhaps, you’re now in debt because you have esteemed immediate gratification more than future rewards. Now you’re down and out.

You know poor decision-making habits got you to where you are.

Now’s the time to summon all your willpower and pull yourself out of the situation, because the only person to blame is you. Right?

Wrong. You’re Making the Fundamental Attribution Error

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As humans, we are often guilty of grossly overplaying the power that our personalities have on many aspects of our lives.

Yet, when you think about it, you’d realize that in your day-to-day activities, your environment is arguably at least as important as your personality.

Your environment influences the kind of options you have for food. For instance, yams do not grow in the United States, and as a consequence, they do not eat pounded yam. Similarly, apples do not grow in Nigeria, making it impossible to eat apple pies over there.

The environment also plays a key role in the type of clothes you will wear, which will, in turn, affect your appearance. Take a moment and ponder on this: No matter how fanatic an individual is as a Christian, she will still put on a shawl if she happens to be in the deserts of the Middle East. Failure to do so will make her vulnerable to the dusty winds of that region.

When you reduce what one eats or wears to the barest concept, you’d find them for what they really are.

They are decisions that you make without actively thinking.

Why? Because the environment you are situated in determines the range of your choices.

My point is simple: If the environment can influence our decisions in the form of the food we eat, or the clothes we wear, why do we fail to see its impact on other aspects of our decision making?

It’s because we are all guilty of committing the Fundamental Attribution Error.

According to researchers, the fundamental attribution error is the tendency to underestimate environmental factors and overestimate the role of personality in determining all forms of behavior – including quality decision making.

And you see the result in our societies today:

People identify as depressed individuals, while totally ignoring the fact that they might be in a depressing physical or social environment.

There are discontented individuals and families all over the world who are neck-deep in debt but fail to see how the prevalent culture of materialism and immediate gratification has made them vulnerable to buying unnecessary things.

Your personality may affect the quality of your decisions, but your environment is the real game-changer. It will make or break you.

Reciprocal Determinism and Your Adullam Ring

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Some might read all these and conclude that I’m advocating a total lack of personal responsibility since we are in an unwinnable war against the environment.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

God, in His infinite power and wisdom, knows how powerful the environment can be in influencing our decisions, habits, and behavior. And what’s more? He has given us the ability to deliberately design our environment in such a way that it would influence the quality of our decisions.

Somewhere along the line, as David’s embarked on his journey of destiny towards Israel kingship, he punctuated his trip with a retreat in a cave at a place called Adullam.

While there, certain men sought to associate themselves with the future king.

Their resume wasn’t stellar in any shape or form.

These men were in distress.

They were discontent with their lots in life.

They were in debt.

These men were in a terrible place in their lives, likely due to the quality of their individual choices up until that point.

But when you fast-forward a few years, the narrative had changed.

These men were no longer referred to as the distressed, the discontented, or the debtors. Rather, they were called David’s Mighty Men.

Bold. Strong. Valiant.

Imagine being trapped in a pit.

On a snowy day.

With a lion.

And still escaping victorious!

That’s just one tale from the remarkable accomplishments of these men.

But there is every chance that these stories would have been lost to posterity if these men had not made the initial decision to change their environments to Adullam.

These men formed their Adullam Ring with David and the sky became the beginning.

Let’s apply this concept to the quality of your decisions.

Do you really think you will be out of shape if the five closest people in your circle are fitness junkies?

Do you think it will be possible for you to continue drowning in debt because of an extravagant lifestyle if your Adullam Ring comprised of individuals who are masters at living within their means?

When your network is made up of people who value delayed gratification over instant fixes of dopamine, you will find yourself doing the same in a matter of time.

Sheer willpower and grit can take you far, but if you want to see the quality of your decision making multiplied ten-fold, you must design your social environment through an Adullam Ring.

The Simplest Way to Form Your Adullam Ring

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Sometimes, I write an epic post that people deem as valuable and the next thing I know, I get a message from someone asking me to be their mentor.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

If you take this approach, it is very likely that you will not get a favorable response. Why? For those who truly understand, a true mentor-mentee relationship is an involved process that consumes the time, effort and resources of both parties for the desired results to be achieved. It’s not something done impulsively.

On the other hand, the Adullam Ring method will give you more traction in a faster period. Here’s how:

First, examine your current circle and identify people who have similar goals as you do. If you are finding it difficult to identify like-minded individuals, there is a good chance that your network needs to be broadened. You can do this by looking out for programs where you know you have a good chance of meeting like minds. Note that you do not need to look for gurus or top professionals for this purpose. All you need are 2 – 5 people who are headed in the same general direction as you are, and are either at your level of proficiency or a step or two ahead of you.

Next, reach out to these individuals and tell them what you are trying to achieve and how you feel you all could be a source of encouragement to each other. It is important to frame the request as a mutually beneficial relationship. Remember, this is not a mentorship, rather a platform for being a part of someone’s enabling social environment, even as they are part of your Adullam Ring.

Finally, have an accountability plan. Naturally, there are certain behaviors that are easier to get accountability than others. For instance, if your goal is to improve your fitness, a simple accountability system is simply to head into the gym at the same time with the group. Of course, if you want to save money, your accountability system will be slightly different. The goal of accountability is to promote what I consider the secret sauce for developing the habit of making quality decisions in the long-run. By incorporating accountability in your Adullam Ring, the decision-making power no longer lies with you, but the larger group. As a result, your decisions become outsourced to your environment, and you reap your desired outcomes.

In Conclusion…

The quality of your decision-making is often a reflection of where you choose to make your habitat. You already outsource the bulk of your decision-making to your environment. Why not take the next step and deliberately design your an enabling and empowering Adullam Ring that will improve your decision making, bring you closer to your desired results.

Defeat Delay Discounting Like David Blaine to Act in Your Best Interests

On November 27, 2000, David Blaine attempted to sit in a block of ice for 72 hours.

He failed, as he was able to do only 63 hours, 42 minutes and 15 seconds, which is still a pretty impressive feat to pull off.

So, how did David Blaine last that long?

I have a simple theory.

David Blaine knew that if he demonstrated that he had a rare skill, the world will deem him as valuable and he could increase his chances of earning millions of dollars over the course of his life.

So, in Blaine’s mind, he pretty much had two choices:

(1) Do what everybody is doing and remain just another ordinary, broke performer running helter-skelter in order to make ends meet, or;

(2) Try your hands at something notorious and reap the rewards of infamy.

David Blaine chose the latter option and it was rational for him to do so.

As he sat there in the ice, with all the cameras and Times Square pedestrians looking on, Blaine continued to persevere because he valued the fame and wealth in the future, more than the pain and discomfort in the present.

He kept on pushing the limits of his body. Minute after minute. Hour after hour. Day after day for nearly 3 days. All these without blinking his eyes for a second of sleep!

David Blaine went that far because he did not have one thing that many of us have in abundance when we are trying to pursue our goals.

That one thing is called delay discounting!

Delay discounting is the tendency most of us have when we downplay a reward we want for the simple fact that it is in the future and not immediately available.

The vast majority of people prefer healthier and trimmer bodies to beer bellies and love handles, right? Unfortunately, the gustatory reward of the cookies, soda, and sugary stuff in the present is valued more than the reward of having a fit body six months down the line.

In the same vein, many people prefer to have more money saved in their bank accounts. Yet, the reward derived from splurging funds on another piece of jewelry they don’t need is valued higher than the reward of financial stability in the future.

People who exhibit delay discounting, exhibit a malaise which I call the Esau Syndrome, named after Esau who valued an immediate plate of food more than his strategic position as the firstborn in his household.

So, how can you pull off a David Blaine and defeat delay discounting, even as you cure yourself of Esau’s Syndrome? The secret can be found in how you choose to interpret difficulties.

See Difficulties as Important for Defeating Delay Discounting

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If you’ve held an ice cube in your hand, you know how uncomfortable it is. Now, imagine how much physical. physiological and psychological distress David Blaine must have been in as he sat in a block of ice for hours.

Yet, David Blaine saw the difficulties of his present reality as an important ingredient that will transform him from just an ordinary performer into an exceptional one.

As I’ve said in a previous post, the way options are framed goes a long way in determining behavior.

In a study, college students who interpreted difficult experiences in school as a sign of its importance were willing to sacrifice more to attain their academic goals. Needless to say, those who interpreted difficulty as impossibility were not as willing.

Similarly, your decision to remind yourself of the importance of those difficult goal-oriented choices will prove beneficial to you in the long run. Stop framing beneficial habits such as saving, eating healthier or exercising as impossible. Rather, start seeing them as a vital ingredient for the results you want.

Overcome Delay Discounting by Interpreting Difficulties as the Path

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David Blaine continued to sit in the ice – immune to delay discounting – because he saw the feat as the path to the fame and wealth he wanted.

It’s one thing to just mentally acknowledge that an act as important for a result you want. If you are serious about results, you need to see the act as the path towards your endgame – fitter body, more income, completed bestselling book, whatever it might be.

In this study, an African American student was asked what it meant to be an African American male. In response, he said,

“To be an African American means to me being strong, intelligent, and very proud of where I came from. Many African Americans have been successful and I plan to be the same way.”

The quoted student, as well as other African American students who gave similar responses, did better in a difficult math test when compared to other students who gave other responses.

The implication is obvious. Participants who perceived themselves as strong, intelligent and proud African Americans were likely to see difficult academic challenges as a path towards maintaining their cultural identities. It is the same reason that Asians seem to be highly proficient in their schoolwork. They interpret the difficulty as the path to reinforcing their identities.

You will defeat delay discounting when you start interpreting your challenges as the path that will link the present ‘you’ with your desired future ‘you’.

Overcome Delay Discounting with Episodic Future Thinking

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As David Blaine sat in the ice, I’m sure he engaged in some form of visualization as he savored the fame and fortune his feat was going to earn him. He was able to find a way to enjoy his future rewards, even as he was in severe discomfort in the present.

Researchers from the School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at the University of Buffalo observed that people who were encouraged to think about future, positive events turned out to be less impulsive than participants who didn’t get such kind of encouragement. The study also reported that participants in the former group were less likely to spend money on calorie-dense fast foods when compared to the control.

What’s the point in all these?

If you are serious about defeating delay discounting, finding a way to periodically think and remind yourself about your goals is essential. There are a number of ways you can do this. For instance, I’ve written extensively on the power of journaling every day. When you journal, the most important things in your life are brought to the forefront of your mind. As a result, you are able to easily recall them when the temptations to choose immediate small results present themselves.

Conclusion

Your decision to undervalue future rewards and overvalue present rewards is limiting you. The good news is that there’s a way out, and you do not need to sit in ice like David Blaine to crush delay discounting and the Esau Syndrome in your life. You can start the journey towards a fuller life by making the decision to change the frames with which you look at difficulty, while also bringing your long-term goals to the front of your mind from time to time.

Sometimes It’s Okay to Pull the Plug!: The Curious Case of Sunk Costs

Consider this simple thought experiment:

Assume that you have spent $100 on a ticket for a weekend ski trip to Michigan. Several weeks later you buy a $50 ticket for a weekend ski trip to Wisconsin. You think you will enjoy the Wisconsin ski trip more than the Michigan ski trip. As you are putting your just-purchased Wisconsin ski trip ticket in your wallet, you notice that the Michigan ski trip and the Wisconsin ski trip are for the same weekend! It’s too late to sell either ticket, and you cannot return either one. You must use one ticket and not the other. Which ski trip will you go on?

If you chose Michigan, you are like 54% of the respondents in this study who based their decision on the ticket prices.

This does not make sense, as you obviously derive more satisfaction from Wisconsin than Michigan, despite the higher price!

What just happened is referred to as sunk costs, which Ohio State University professors, Hal Arkes, and Catherine Blumer, describe as the ‘… greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. The prior investment, which is motivating the present decision to continue, does so despite the fact that it objectively should not influence the decision…the psychological justification for this maladaptive behavior is predicated on the desire not to appear wasteful.’

Sunk costs are a reason behind many people’s unhappiness in this day and age.

It is the reason why people continue to remain in abusive relationships. They consider the time and efforts they had already invested in the relationship, despite common sense appealing to them to stay alive by opting out.

The effects of sunk costs are not just limited to individuals. You see the same patterns repeating itself in the kinds of decisions made by corporations and governments.

Who can forget how the almighty Concorde passenger jet continued to fly for 27 years, despite the fact that it was not commercially viable to stay in business. Similarly, US citizens will not be in a hurry to neglect the way its government handled, not one, but two needless wars in the shape of the Vietnam and Iraq conflicts.

At this point, the question is pretty straightforward: How can we reduce errors in judgment made as a result of sunk costs?

In the next few paragraphs, I share three simple strategies that will be helpful to you.

Be Introspective to Reduce Sunk Cost Errors

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In my post, The Myth of Quitting: When Quitting is a Good Idea, I talk about the Stockdale Paradox, which states that, You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

Most people allow sunk costs to cloud their judgments because they allow their heads to stay in the sky while seeing the world through rainbow-colored lenses.

If you want to reduce the negative impact of sunk costs in your life, you need to be willing to be introspective and have uncomfortable conversations with yourself.

Don’t be afraid to ask yourself the hard questions about your current course of action. Ask yourself, ‘Is this the best use of my time and resources?’ , ‘Would I be better off without this relationship?’, Should I be looking for alternative uses of my resources?

These are questions that have the potential of changing your life. However, you will never be able to answer them if you do not give yourself the time to slow down and be introspective.

Reduce Sunk Costs By Reaching Out for Advice

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Many times, the quality of our decisions are a reflection of where we are, and what we know at a given time. In my native Yoruba dialect, there is a powerful proverb which says, ‘Nkan ti agba ri lori ijoko, b’omode ba gun’gi o le ma ri ‘. This roughly translates as ‘What a child needs to climb a ladder to see, an elder sees it effortlessly while seated’

Sometimes, no matter how much you introspect, there’s still no substitute for experience.

JoNell Strough, of West Virginia University, and her colleagues conducted a study to see how people reacted to a failing plan that was halfway complete. They discovered that older people were likelier to cancel the plan, as opposed to younger people who continued to plow through, despite all the signs pointing to failure.

You don’t need to make all the mistakes yourself.

If you want to improve the quality of your decisions and reduce errors due to sunk costs, don’t be afraid to reach out to experienced people who are more knowledgeable than you in a particular area or field.

Detach Your Identity from Your Decisions

If you want to reduce the hold of sunk costs over you, you must not be afraid to separate what you consider as your true abilities, from the results of your decisions.

In studies conducted by Itamar Simonson and Barry M. Staw, from the University of California, they observed that people have a tendency to justify their poor decisions by increasing their commitments to them.

This means one thing: Their identities are formed by their decisions.

Therefore, in order to protect their identities, people have a need to protect and commit to their decisions – even when it does not make sense!

As a result, they continue to plow through the path of sunk costs, despite it not being in their best interests to continue to do so.

When you take the bold step of not seeing your identity in the results of your decisions, your attitude changes.

Instead of seeing decisions as an identity to protect at all costs, you start seeing them as learning opportunities that will help you in the long run.

In Conclusion…

A lot of unnecessary pain, waste and heartache can be avoided if you are able to identify sunk costs.

To do that, you need to be more introspective about the status quo, more open to advise from mentors and experts, and more willing to detach your sense of self from the outcomes of your decisions.

Opportunity Costs: A Simple Tweak that Will Improve Your Decision Making by 95%

A life that is plagued with poor decisions is like a watch with dead batteries – the times are more awry than it needs to be.

If you are serious about improving the quality of your life, you need to be more conscious of one simple thing that everyone overlooks 90% of the time.

You wanna know what it is?

It’s Opportunity Costs.

So, what are Opportunity Costs? This is best explained with an example.

Suppose you have the option of choosing between vegetables and chocolate. If you opt for the chocolate, your opportunity cost is not just the vegetables, but the flat tummy and healthier body you’ve always wanted.

The same thing happens when you have to choose between scrolling mindlessly on Instagram and taking action on the online program you just purchased. As before, if you choose Instagram, your opportunity cost is not just the time you would have spent on the online course, but also the rewards the specialized knowledge could have brought you in the future.

As you can see, in spite of our best intentions, as humans, we find a way to not act in our best interests. As a result, the quality of our lives continues to plummet.

But it is not all tales of doom.

You can improve the quality of your life, and one way to do that is to be more conscious of opportunity costs when you make decisions.

So, how then can you be more conscious about opportunity costs to improve your decision making?

Be Ruthless in Your Planning to See Opportunity Costs Better

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Stephen Spiller, associate professor at the University of Califonia, Los Angeles, conducted a study to examine how sensitive people were to opportunity costs in their decision making. In his study of 242 people, Spiller discovered that respondents who planned how they spent their income were more likely to consider opportunity costs than their counterparts who did not plan.

What’s the point here?

If you want to improve your consciousness to opportunity costs, you need to plan ahead of time when you’re not under any pressure to choose! While this obviously applies to money, you can see the same effect in various aspects of life. For instance, when you plan your day ahead of time, you’re less likely to ‘waste’ time on activities and choices that can derail you from your desirable destination

Impose Constraints on Yourself Simplify Opportunity Costs

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In the same study, Spiller discovered something interesting.

Among the respondents that did not plan, those whose salaries came in every month thought more about opportunity costs than those who got their wages every week.

This means that, even though the monthly salary earners did not want to think about it, the conditions of their pay still constrained them to think about opportunity costs. Naturally, the results would be quadrupled if planning was involved, but this is much better than nothing!

So, how can you set up constraints? A good example is leveraging on technology.

I’ll explain with a personal example.

Some months ago, I noticed that I spent a lot of time mindlessly surfing the internet. To help constrain my tendencies, I installed an app on my phone that blocked me from accessing my favorite sites for a large chunk of the day.

The result? My productivity skyrocketed because I constrained myself from having to choose between mindless surfing and projects I had on my desk!

Change the Frames and Opportunity Costs Become Clearer

Many times, we fail to consider opportunity costs because of the way the options are framed (i.e., presented to us).

Some researchers conducted a study where they offered a group of students the opportunity to by a DVD.

For some of the participants, the researchers presented the opportunity as a choice between buying the DVD and not buying it. Other participants received the opportunity as a choice between buying the DVD and ‘keeping the money for other purchases’.

Needless to say, the first group made 20% more DVD purchases than the second group.

This goes to say that the way the options are presented to you will determine how easily you will consider opportunity costs.

If you want to improve decision making, you need to learn how to deliberately change the frame.

So, when everyone is seeing the sale as “just 40% off”, you are changing the frame and realizing that you’re still paying 60%!

In the same vein, when everyone else is seeing the extra work as an opportunity to make extra money and advance your career, you’re changing the frame to see it as a means by which you lose valuable time with your significant other.

In Conclusion…

Just as it’s never too late to change dead batteries out of a clock, you can dramatically improve the quality of your life by improving the quality of your decisions.

All you need to do is to be more sensitive to opportunity costs by planning ruthlessly, imposing constraints on yourself, and actively changing frames presented to you.

My Reaction to Trevor Noah’s “Why Is the Alt-Right So Angry?”

I’ll be the first to tell you this: I love Trevor Noah and his team.

That said, I still have 3 problems with the video below, which seemed to suggest that the behavior of the alt-right was related to their unwillingness to consume porn.

Confirmation Bias

There are tons of empirical evidence that pornography coupled with masturbation is not healthy. Nowadays, people in their teens and twenties are suffering from premature ejaculation and other forms of erectile dysfunction. To put that into context, before the proliferation of porn on the internet, these kinds of ailments typically happened to men over 40 years. Confirmation bias sets in when you ignore the myriads of evidence against pornography consumption and look for that one person theorizing about how porn is causing the alt-right to be angry. I had the choice to simply watch the video and move on, but I feel there are thousands of people here who are miseducated on the real harm that porn causes in society.

Anybody Can Do Armchair Theorizing

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Dr. David Ley was only providing a theory of how he thought masturbation influenced the behavior of a certain group of people. I do not have any problem with that. I think every good scientist has the right to theorize about anything. That is the way of science. However, science does not start and stop at theorizing. You start with a hypothesis, and you test that hypothesis by experimentation. This does not even have to be a true experiment with real people in a lab. You can go to aggregated data from national surveys such as the BRFSS and many others, and simply compare the reported happiness of people who watch porn and masturbate, versus people who do not. All I am saying is that it is irresponsible to push such a theory without empirical evidence of any form. This is one of the reasons I feel psychology continues to get a bad rep among the hard sciences. You do not see physicists, chemists or biologists theorize and end there. They follow-through by providing empirical evidence that supports or disproves their hypotheses.

Correlation is NOT Causation

One of the first things you learn in grad school is that correlation is not causation. The fact that two events happen concurrently does not mean that one caused the other. You cannot simply say that the alt-right is always angry because they do not watch porn. That’s simply lazy science. As an example, I typically wake up when the sun rises. But I won’t go on to say that sunrise caused me to wakeup. Neither would I say that my waking up caused the sun to rise. There are more factors that directly impact when I get up, such as the time when I slept, or how much I slept the previous night, or how tired I was the previous day. Similarly, there are myriads of factors that directly translate into anger in the alt-right, just in the same way that there are myriads of factors that translate into anger in other people groups.

Conclusion…

Now, I understand this is satire (i.e., Trevor Noah and similar satirists should not be taken very seriously). However, the problem with satire is that you see what you want to see depending on your stand. People on the right would watch this video and laugh at how dumb liberals are to believe that not watching porn can cause anger. People on the left would watch the same video and laugh at how dumb conservatives are to not watch porn. And that’s why I have taken the time to write this long essay, so that irrespective of your leaning, you learn to see through the lenses of objectivity.