ARCHIVE – Page 6 – Promise Tewogbola

Three Big Ideas: On Paper, Deliberate Practice, and, Consistency

Big Idea #1 From Me

In the days of old, paper was a scarce commodity because of the amount of sheer effort that went into producing it.

Back then, if you had access to paper, it was because you had something worth writing about. And because you didn’t want to waste paper, you had to give sufficient thought to whatever you were going to write.

This is one big reason a lot of classic books are very dense in meaning – paper was hard to come by and only the highest quality ideas and thoughts were ever transcribed. (If you are a Christian, this will make you appreciate the Bible more)

To be educated meant two things: (1) You could give considerable thought to your ideas before condensing them to words written on scarce paper. (2) You could also unpack the meanings in the dense words and expound upon these meanings in a way that the common man could grasp.

In fact, the root word for educate is the Latin word “educere” which describes the process of drawing one thing out of another. In other words, if you were not skilled at extracting actionable meaning from condensed words, you were not educated.

Today, the story is very different.

The abundance of paper, and later word processors, and now the internet, means that though more people can read and write, fewer and fewer people are educated in the original sense of the word. That explains why there is an abundance of low-quality information, ideas and books out there – particularly in the past 20 – 30 years.

The world is filled with mindless readers and writers who live like programmed robots executing the same poorly-written line of code. Very few people are giving considerable time to their thoughts before they dispense them into cyberspace. In any case, even fewer people are willing to use their heads for more than a hat rack. The vast majority of people are only interested in viral tweets and the latest scandal in town.

Understand this: There is a whole realm of possibilities available to the ones who choose to break away from conformity to mediocrity and become educated. These are the people who understand that we’re in a battle of words, and only the ones who have a mastery of words will win.

Big Idea #2 From Research

In their classic 1993 article, The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance, Anders Ericsson and his colleagues were interested in uncovering the factors that distinguished elite performers from the “just okay” performers.

In one of their studies which focused on violin players, Ericsson and his colleagues discovered two major differences between the elite violinists and the “just okay” violinists.

First, the elite violinists saw practice very differently from the “just okay” violinists. For the “just okay” violinists, every opportunity they had to play the violin was considered practice. That means that if they were playing to relax, or playing for an audience, or playing songs they already knew by heart – all these were considered as practice.

On the other hand, the elite violinists’ perception of practice was very different. They did not see playing for an audience, or playing in the “zone” as enough to improve their performance. Their approach was to spend a relatively short burst of time, say 60 – 90 minutes, on specific activities that improved their level of performance. The elites were not practicing merely for the fun of it. Neither were they repeating things they already knew. Rather, they were painfully concentrating on the weaker aspects of their performance, getting feedback, and using that feedback to improve their performance. They usually did not enjoy this form of practice, but went on with it because they knew it would make them better.

Second, the elite violin players slept more than the “just okay” group. This is something that athletes understand perfectly. Because of the constraints of the human body, one should not practice hard things indefinitely. Doing so will only increase the probabilities of injury and failure. After a burst of intensity, you need time to rest. In addition to helping you recover from your efforts, resting has been empirically shown to consolidate what you have learned into your memory. This makes it much easier to recall the new skill when the need arises.

My key takeaway is how this paper throws a wrench into the 10,000-hour rule popularized by Malcolm Gladwell in his book – Outliers. Incidentally, Gladwell got the idea of 10,000 hours of practice by reading Ericsson’s paper. What he left out from the book, however, was the type of practice you should be doing in those 10,000 hours. If you are staying in your comfort zone, simply repeating something you are already familiar with, you will never reach elite levels in your domain of expertise. On the other hand, if you spend just 30 minutes a day deliberately improving upon a specific weakness in your skillset, you could reach the top of your niche in no time.

Big Idea #3 From Bible

1 Peter 2:21 – 22 says, “For even hereunto were ye called: because Christ also suffered for us, leaving us an example, that ye should follow his steps:Who did no sin, neither was guile found in his mouth”

In the personal development space, one of the traits touted for success in life is consistency. As a writer, you are encouraged to keep writing, day-in-day-out. If you are an athlete, you are told to show up for training everyday. If you are into sales, you must continue to market your products and services in order to make the breakthrough.

While viewing consistency in this way is useful, there’s another side of consistency that is overlooked.

Jesus Christ is described as having no guile. This does not just imply that He always told the truth. It also means there was a union, or if you want – a consistency, between His thoughts, His beliefs and His words.

There is a reason we are drawn to authentic people. It’s not because they are paragons of virtue (although they may be). Neither is it because they are charismatic (although they may be). Rather, it is because we can listen to them and conclude, “I’m getting all of this person – nothing more, nothing less”. We weigh their words and find them void of guile and pretense.

I’ve come to realize something simple about life: When there is a consistency between your beliefs, your thoughts and your words, every sentence you speak is backed with conviction and power. It also follows that the greater the divide between your words and your beliefs, the weaker your position in life. Christians understand this principle when it comes to the place of prayer, but fail to apply it to other aspects of their lives.

This week, I encourage you to try this simple exercise: Before you say anything, ask yourself, “Do I really believe this?” Like most people, you may be shocked with how inconsistent the various parts of your essence really are.

The Zidane Effect, Kairos, and, Alternative Histories

In the dying minutes of the 2006 World Cup final match between France and Italy, Italian defender Marco Materazzi had grabbed at the shirt of French player, Zinedane Zidane.

Disgusted, Zidane told Materazzi, “If you want my shirt so much, I’d give it to you afterward”

Materazzi replied, “I’d prefer the whore that is your sister!”

That was all it took to set Zidane off.

He made the decision to butt the Italian defender Marco Materazzi in the chest, got himself sent off for violent conduct, and France went on to lose the match after a penalty shootout.

Here’s the million-dollar question: Would France have won if Zidane hadn’t gotten the red card?

We’ll get back to that. First, let’s lay the groundwork.

I. The 8th Wonder of the World

Albert Einstein, the 20th-century theoretical physicist known for his theory of relativity, is said to have quipped, “Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it; he who doesn’t pays it.”

There are two things wrong with that quote. First, there’s no evidence that Albert Einstein ever said that. Einstein died in 1955 and the first appearance of that quote was in 1983. Two, there are 2 other forces in the physical universe that are infinitely more powerful than compound interest: They are Time and Probabilities.

A short, ancient Hebrew book, called the Qoheleth, introduces these two forces as the cause of every phenomenon you see on this side of eternity.

“I returned and saw under the sun that the race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong, neither is bread to the wise nor riches to men of intelligence and understanding nor favor to men of skill; but time and chance happen to them all.”

If you pause and reflect on this carefully, you’d realize that success is impossible without understanding and partnering with these 2 forces.

Unfortunately, in every human, there is a nagging desire to explain the causes of events without acknowledging the roles of probabilities (chance) and time.

When a person wins a race, humans say it’s because he’s fast

When an army wins the battle, we say, it’s because the army had superior military strategies

When a person accumulates wealth or obtains valuable outcomes in their lives, we say it’s because the person had certain traits that made such results more likely

Yet we conveniently forget the stories of people who were fast but still lost a race.

We forget about powerful armies that succumbed to smaller and weaker armies

We forget about the hardworking men and women who apply all the tricks in the success guru’s playbook but still end up struggling to make ends meet.

As it turns out, our perception of causality is fractured because we don’t understand probabilities and time. Living life with such a fractured perception of causality is like crossing a busy highway blindfolded – you may make it to the other side, in every sense of the phrase.

So, what’s the way out? You must understand probabilities and time.

II. People Do Not Inherently Understand Probabilities

In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky published a journal article titled, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”.

One of the big ideas in the article is the manner in which people think about probabilities.

People do not think about the probability of an event, but rather the impact of that event. And this is reflected in their decision-making process.

For instance, assume I’m about to toss a coin.

If I asked you to choose between head and tails, you will probably pick one side at random. Why? Because you know that every coin has a 50% chance of giving you a Head and a 50% chance of giving you a Tail.

What if, before flipping the coin, I told you that I will give you $1000 if the outcome is Heads?

Most people will subconsciously weigh “Heads” more valuable than “Tails” – even though the probability of either option is still 50% each!

The same thing happens in other kinds of decision-making.

For instance, the probability of winning the lottery is very small, but the impact $1,000,000 can have on a person’s life is high. As a result, gamblers overestimate their chances of winning and continue to gamble. Similar patterns occur in the way people handle their health and finances. Below a particular age, the probability of developing high blood pressure, or experiencing a financial emergency is reasonably low. This time, most people underweigh or even ignore these probabilities and continue to make decisions that can have bad outcomes. By the time they realize the error of their ways, it’s often already too late.

But that’s only just the tip of the iceberg.

III. Probabilities Are Wider Than You Realize

Back to the million-dollar question: Would France have won the World Cup if Zidane hadn’t gotten the red card?

That is one of the several alternative histories we will never get to see. What we do know is that Zidane’s absence had an impact on the game’s final outcome.

The same thing plays out in your day-to-day individual decision-making.

Right before you commit to any decision, there are a ton of potential outcomes that are available to you. Before you choose a spouse, there are tons of potential spouses out there in the universe that can complement you. Before you choose a job, there are tons of potential jobs out there that can be a good fit for you. Before you invest your hard-earned money, there are multiple opportunities vying for your attention. However, once you choose, you will only experience the outcomes attached to your choice.

And what happens to the other alternative histories? They may or may not be available to you again at a later time. In the context of our football example, it took France another 12 years before the opportunity to win the World Cup presented itself again.

Many will not be that fortunate. Why? In addition to not thinking in terms of probabilities, very few people think about the alternative histories and the potential outcomes of these histories.

IV. Errors and Alternative Histories

The quality of your life is a function of the probabilities you are aware of at the point of decision making. These probabilities are not merely limited to the outcomes of your decisions, but also to the outcomes in your alternative histories.

But how can we access these alternative histories when we cannot see them?

The answer is something the writer of the Qoheleth understood:

“There is an evil I have seen under the sun, like an error which proceeds from the ruler—folly is set in many exalted places and in great dignity while the rich sit in humble places.”

To the laity, the word “error” implies a mistake – something that should not happen, or something that one must avoid at all costs.

On the other hand, to scientists, “error” has a second layer of meaning, which describes a variation/deviation from one’s expectations. That’s why you won’t see researchers freaking out when they see errors in their data. Sometimes, scientists, unlike laymen, are humble enough to acknowledge that their expectations may be built on faulty assumptions about reality. At other times, certain statistical tests WILL NOT even be valid unless there is some variation (i.e., ‘error’) in the observations. In other words, errors are desirable!

What determines your stake at the table of honor is neither your wisdom, nor your wealth, but how much error (variation) you permit in your life.

Take a moment to think about how the day-to-day existence of the average person in the 21st-century is devoid of deviation.

In the name of productivity and personal development, many people lead machine-like lives. They plan their day to the microsecond and leave little to no gap for anything else. Because of their ill-advised adherence to their tasks and to-do lists, these people rarely break routine. As a result, there is little room for them to experience potential outcomes from their alternative histories. You see the same thing play out in the deadbeat, who wakes up, eats, plays videogames all day, watches porn, and sleeps – only to repeat the cycle the next day. Like his type A counterpart, there is very little “error” in his life that could bring him in contact with life-changing outcomes in his alternative histories.

People who benefit from probabilities have consciously or unconsciously acknowledged its impact by embedding variability in their lives. This takes different forms. For instance, some read books outside their fields that expose them to cutting-edge knowledge which is often commonplace concepts in other fields. For others, it’s their willingness to do something as simple as talking with strangers. Over time, such people develop a wide network that often proves invaluable in the long run.

Understand this: Whenever you introduce variability in your routine, you are exposing yourself to more happy accidents from your alternative histories.

V. Understanding the Times

The language we speak heavily influences the way we think. Unfortunately, many modern languages, including English, do not do justice to the concept of “time”. This is why many people lack an understanding of the times.

In Ancient Greek, there were two major words used to describe the concept of time.

The first word was “chronos” which implied the passage of time from morning to evening, day to day, month to month, or year to year. Chronos dealt with the quantity of time. The second word was “kairos” which described an opportune time where you needed to act with decisiveness. Kairos was qualitative and it varied from person to person. Your actions during kairos can affect the trajectory of your life.

Many people fail to understand the times because they cannot distinguish between chronos time and kairos time. Here are three reasons why this is so:

First, people put their emotions in the driving seat of their lives. It is easy for this to play out today because of the relationship people have with information abundance. On one hand, you have the news media bombarding your mind with violence, gore, and death. On the other hand, you have the noise from modern-day pharisees and influencers who profit from your attention on social media. Of course, you can never meet their standards. This is why a lot of people’s actions are reactive – only informed by the emotions of fear and anxiety. In this state, it is hard to distinguish between chronos and kairos time.

Second, people are not patient. This is where the Yoruba maxim, roughly translated, ‘Don’t run on another man’s clock’ rings true. Kairos time varies from individual to individual. By focusing on your neighbor’s journey, you will miss out on your kairos when it inevitably arrives. Refuse to allow impatience and resentment to build in your heart. Here’s one more verse from the Qoheleth, “To everything there is a season, and a time for every matter or purpose under heaven”. When you are patient, life-changing opportunities will inevitably come your way. This is an immutable principle on this side of eternity.

Third, people do not know when to be decisive. Some people may appear to be models of patience, but deep down in their hearts, they are afraid of taking action. Kairos is like a portal that can give you access to alternative histories with life-changing outcomes. If, in the name of patience, you fold your arms and stay put, that portal of opportunity will be closed and you will remain at the same level.

VI. Tying it all Together

For the last time, let’s go back to the 2006 World Cup final between Italy and France.

We’re in the dying moments of the game with the scores tied at 1-1.

Both teams have an almost equal shot at winning the cup.

Now, Materazzi has just grabbed Zidane’s shirt, to which a disgusted Zidane has replied, “If you want my shirt so much, I’d give it to you afterwards”

Pause.

Materazzi understands that in the current timeline, Italy and France are equally matched. However, the Italian hardman is somehow aware that there is an alternative history where the Italian team has a higher probability of winning the World Cup.

The portals of kairos open up and Materazzi jumps in ‘heart first’.

“I’d prefer the whore that is your sister!”

In less than 30 minutes, an alternative history has played out and the Italian team is crowned World Champions.

And what about Zidane, one of the most skillful playmakers of his generation?

I bet he was wondering how differently everything could have played out if he had paid more attention to the 8th wonder of the physical universe – time and probabilities!

Three Big Ideas: On Influencers, Whorf’s Hypothesis, and, Waiting

Big Idea #1 From Me

Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the US Federal Reserves, once said, ‘In a crisis the only asset you have is your credibility.’

By extension, this means as an influencer, you shouldn’t pull instructions out of thin air and advise the populace to act on that.

However, this is not the case in the area of public policy making.

Many policies are based upon the work of theorizers who really have nothing to lose in the event that things go wrong. If things go fine, they get the accolades and if things go wrong, they are still able to publish their theories in journal articles and opinion pieces of popular newspapers.

You see the same patterns play out in the online marketing and personal development space. As with the policy theorists, many people in this niche do not have anything to lose. If things go as planned, they get a testimonial out of you. And if things do not go as planned, you’d still have spent your $2599 on their courses.

Here’s a useful heuristic: Before you commit yourself to any individual’s advice, ask yourself, what does he have to lose if he is wrong?

Big Idea #2 From Research

In his now classic 1940 journal article, Science and linguistics, Benjamin Lee Whorf proposed the controversial position that the way we think about the world is influenced by our language.

As humans, we like to hold ourselves up as rational beings that have used the power of intellect to bring nature to its knees. We cite the examples of Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein – the great men of science whose elegant mathematical formulas form the foundations upon which our present understanding of the physical world is built.

Yet, we take for granted the role that the language they spoke played on the way they thought.

For instance, in English, sentences take the form of actor-action. So, we say, ‘The boy is running’ or ‘Lightning is striking’. In contrast, in Hopi, a language spoken by a Native Indian tribe in North America, sentences take the form of action duration. Therefore, instead of saying ‘The boy is running’, the Hopi people will say ‘Running’, and instead of saying ‘Lightning is striking’, they will simply say ‘Lightning’.

This slight distinction in language implies that to those who speak English, an action can never occur in isolation – there must always be an actor responsible for causing the action. In contrast, the Hopi are satisfied with actions without a cause.

The same event occurring in the world evokes a reaction in the observer that is dependent on the language he/she thinks in!

My key takeaway is perfectly articulated by following parable told by David Foster Wallace:

There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys, how’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?”

Just like the two young fish who were unconscious of the role that water played in their existence, we all take for granted the roles that our language plays in how we think.

Big Idea #3 From the Bible

Genesis 18:8 says, ‘And he took butter, and milk, and the calf which he had dressed, and set it before them; and he stood by them under the tree, and they did eat.’

For context, Abraham had discerned that certain sojourneying men were not ordinary. So, he stopped them from their travels, had their feet clean and prepared a sumptuous meal for them.

Then, he waited.

Christians are often encouraged to wait upon the Lord. Unfortunately, many go about it the wrong way. For many, waiting is a passive process where you simply fold your arms and wait for events to unfold.

The image that Abraham presents us is a totally different depiction of the waiting process. For Abraham, waiting was similar to what a waiter in a high-end restaurant does to patrons.

The waiter does not passively fold his arms hoping to be of service when the occasion arises. Rather, the waiter is always on standby – waiting with an expectation to meet the patron’s needs.

That was the attitude Abraham had on that sunny day at the plains of Mamre. He didn’t just hurriedly serve the travellers a meal.

He also waited with the waiter’s expectation for the Word to drop.

Needless to say, that’s what happened moments later:

Genesis 18:10: ‘And he said, I will certainly return unto thee according to the time of life; and, lo, Sarah thy wife shall have a son…’

I don’t know what you are trusting God for in your life, but I want you to always remember this: Waiting, done right, is never passive.

May the LORD give you understanding in these things.

Three Big Ideas: On the Lion Tamer, Prospect Theory, and Length of Days

Big Idea #1 From Me

I recently read the interesting story of a 20th-century lion tamer named Clyde Beatty.

He lived in an age where many lion tamers of the time died in the line of duty.

Yet, Clyde Beatty lived till he was 62 years and when he died, it was from cancer, rather than from being mauled by a lion.

So, what did Beatty do differently? Well, it turns out that he was one of the first people to adopt the use of a chair and a whip in his lion taming act.

You see, when a lion tamer is performing his act, he always ensures that the chair is held in the lion’s face. This doesn’t only maintain a physical distance between the lion and the performer, it also confuses the lion. Why? Because it is focusing on all four legs of the chair at the same time, rather than on the tamer.

Many people today are just like the lion in the tamer’s act!

Just like the lion is immobilized by focusing on all legs of the chair at the same time, many people are immobilized into mediocrity because their attention is pulled in all different directions.

Understand this: The world out there is always waving a chair in your face every time. And as long as your eyes are on the legs of the chair, rather than the meal, you will continue to be locked in the cage of unfulfilled potential.

Big Idea #2 From Research

“Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk” by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky is one of my favorite journal articles of all time.

One of the ideas that stood out to me was the manner in which people think about probabilities, or the likelihood that something will happen.

People have a tendency of not thinking about the probability of an event, but rather the impact of that event. And this is reflected in their decision making process.

For instance, assume I’m about to toss a coin.

What if, before flipping the coin, I told you that I will give you $1000 if the outcome is Heads?

Most people will subconsciously weigh “Heads” more valuable than “Tails” – even though the likelihood of either option is still 50% each!

This human tendency to subconsciously overweigh the likelihood of an outcome is the reason why people continue to gamble. The probability of winning the big payout is very, very small. But since the impact of winning is BIG, gamblers overweigh their chances and continue to gamble.

My key takeaway is simple. You might be thinking you don’t gamble, or engage in other socially unacceptable behaviors. But I want you to think about how you are handling your health or finances. Who knows, your preferences might just be revealing how you are underweighing your chances of experiencing the outcomes of unhealthy physical and fiscal behaviors.

Big Idea #3 From the Bible

Proverbs 3:1-2 says, ‘My son, forget not my law; but let thine heart keep my commandments: For length of days, and long life, and peace, shall they add to thee.’

‘Length of days’ and ‘long life’ are two concepts that took a while for me to differentiate.

People are more familiar with the concept of long life, which literally means growing to a full, old age before expiring.

Length of days, on the other hand, expresses a situation whereby the individual who understands its operation is able to milk from 1 day what others attain in a month, or a year!

I know this is not intuitive to the logical individual, but when you realize that (1) time is a property bound to the physical realm, and, (2) God is spirit – He transcends the physical, you will have no choice but to agree that partnership with the Father is the Ultimate productivity hack!

May the Lord give you understanding in these things.

Three Big Ideas: On Inversion, Overconfidence, and Observing Patterns

Big Idea #1 From Me

Carl Jacobi was a 19th-century German mathematician that made a lot of profound contributions to the field of differential equations.

One thing that made this possible was Jacobi’s problem-solving approach.

He believed that when you invert already known facts in a particular discipline, you can reveal additional knowledge that was hitherto unknown.

That’s why, as a professor, Jacobi always encouraged the graduate students under him to always invert the known confines of the field and examine what they found there.

When this method is applied to everyday living, you’re equipped with an unrivaled clarity of thought.

For instance, instead of asking yourself, What do I need to do to make money?, you can ask, What do I need to do to lose money? Chances are doing this will open your eyes to areas of your life where you’re not being a good steward of money.

Instead of asking, What do I need to do to stay productive?, ask, What do I need to do to waste my day? Again, this exercise will help you identify the simple tweaks you can make to your day to boost your productivity.

Many times, humans are unidirectional in their thinking.

We like to think in a particular way because contrarian thinking takes effort.

As a result, we imagine that the elusive secret to success can be attained only by accumulating more knowledge and wealth.

Through inversion, you’d realize that most times, less is more.

Big Idea #2 From research

In a journal article titled, Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgements, Stuart Oskamp asked a group of doctors and students to provide correct answers to a series of questions about a real person nicknamed ‘Joseph Kidd’.

The information about Joseph Kidd was presented in 4 stages, with questions asked after each stage. In addition to providing correct answers, participants were also required to answer how confident they were about their answers.

Stage 1 contained brief demographic information about Kidd like age, gender and so on.

Stage 2 had information about Kidd’s childhood.

Stage 3 contained information about Kidd’s education.

Stage 4 had information on other activities that Kidd was involved in till he clocked 29 years.

In all, the participants were asked 25 questions about Kidd.

On average, no one (even the doctors) got up to 30% of the questions right.

Yet, in spite of the poor accuracy of their answers, the more information a participant had about Joseph Kidd, the more confident they were in their answers. And there was no difference between the doctors and the students!

My key takeaway is something I’ve nearly flogged to death.

More information doesn’t necessarily translate into better decision-making.

That’s why I’ve stressed countless times that you don’t need to know everything. You only need a revealed knowledge of what works and the wisdom to work it out.

Big Idea #3 From the Bible

1 Chronicles 28:12a, 19 says: “And the pattern of all that he had by the spirit…All this, said David, the LORD made me understand in writing by His hand upon me, even all the works of this pattern”

One thing I established in my book “Mastering the Art of Observation” is the fact that the unseen realm is the causal realm.

The blueprint for life in the physical realm is found in the unseen.

Even Genesis 1:1 attests to that.

In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth.

The action word “created” is in the past tense form, implying that everything was already finished in the beginning.

When you have an understanding of this, like David, you can simply align with patterns in the unseen realm and crystallize their physical analogs in the seen realm – irrespective of the uncertainties in the world system.

If there’s any prayer you should heartily pray this season, it’s this:

Father, open the eyes of my understanding to see the patterns for my life, destiny, and situation.

May the Lord give you understanding in these things.

Three Big Ideas: On Keystone Predators, the Lindy Effect, and, Intelligence Officers

Big Idea #1 from me

In 1995, the administration of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA released grey wolves into the park.

In less than 6 years after the introduction of the wolves, regions of the park that had been barren was now crowded with trees.

Even more remarkable, due to the presence of trees, there was less soil erosion and new pools began to form in the park, where there had been none before.

All because of the addition of wolves into the park!

Ecologists call this type of animals keystone predators.

In the absence of wolves, the balance in the ecosystem was distorted.

Because grazing animals were left unchecked by their predators, the grey wolf, their population in the park exploded.

In no time, unhindered overgrazing left vast portions of the land barren.

In a similar example, there’s evidence that thousands of years ago, North Africa and the Middle East used to be lush with green vegetation – yes, even the Sahara and Arabian deserts!

But, do you know what else was present at the time?

Lions! A keystone predator that brought balance into that ecosystem

The extinction of lions in that region correlated with dramatic climatic changes that led to the hot, arid Arabia and North Africa we know today.

My point?

You are a creative partner with God in the institution of order in the midst of chaos.

You were placed on earth for a reason and when you don’t play your role, you cause an imbalance in the ‘ecosystem’.

There are destinies attached to you.

There are other people’s stories that will not happen until you step up and fill your gap.

You are the answer to somebody’s prayer.

Awake from your slumber. Put on your strength. Put on your beautiful garments.

Arise and shine!

Big Idea #2 from Research

In a paper titled, “Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects“, astrophysicist J. Richard Gott III describes how in 1969, he visited the Stonehenge (which was estimated to be over 3000 years old) and the Berlin Wall (8 years at the time).

Gott then wondered which of the two structures will outlast the other.

As you probably know, the Berlin Wall was destroyed in 1991, while Stonehenge continues to exist to this day.

Gott then mathematically proposed an argument that the longer a thing exists, the more likely it will continue to exist.

This has been popularly called the Lindy Effect.

My takeaway is simple: More often than not, older is better.

Books that were written hundreds of years ago but are still in print today contain more wisdom and practical knowledge than books written in the past 10 – 20 years. And because of their current longevity, these classics will also continue to remain relevant for the next 1000 years.

The same pattern repeats itself in medicine.

Herbs were used by our forefathers to cure ailments and they still remain relevant today. On the other hand, numerous ‘modern’ drugs have been replaced. For instance, as a young child, I remember using chloroquine pills to treat malaria. Artemisinin and other drugs have long since taken the place of chloroquine as the go-to cure for malaria.

This point is instructive: While everybody is shouting about futurism and cutting edge technology, you will be better served to at least keep one hand on systems and structures that the Lindy Effect has vetted.

Big Idea #3 from the Bible

Proverbs 2:6 says, “For the Lord giveth wisdom: out of his mouth cometh knowledge and understanding.”

Many people mistakenly interpret knowledge as information.

As a result, they strive to consume as much information as they can. Usually, this leads to information constipation, where the individual is whipped into a state of action paralysis.

One of the Hebrew words translated “knowledge” is “madda”, which literally means “intelligence”.

Staff members of the CIA and FBI are usually called intelligence officers.

This isn’t because they are encyclopedias of knowledge, but rather because they have a specific, privileged awareness of the variables of a specific situation.

In the same vein, the men of Issachar were called men of understanding because they had privileged, revealed knowledge of what Israel had to do per season.

Understand this: Life is complicated as it is. There’s information everywhere – plenty of noise, little signal.

You really don’t need to know everything there is to know!

You only need to have the revealed knowledge of what works and the wisdom to work it out.

May the Lord give you Understanding in these things.

Developing an Understanding of the Times: The Curious Case of General Sani Abacha

Disclaimer: I’m not advocating for coups, dictatorships, or human rights violations. Ensure you adequately understand the example before drawing your conclusions.

In 2019, I took an online course where the instructor made an interesting argument.

He said when you really detest someone, that person usually has some other traits that would bring you phenomenal success if you applied them to your life.

In recent Nigerian history, there’s no one that has gotten as much hate as General Sani Abacha, the military head of state who ruled Nigeria with an iron fist from 1993 – 1998.

I’m old enough to remember the celebrations of the masses when news of Abacha’s death filtered out to the street in 1998.

Over two decades later, Abacha’s name continues to stink to high heavens, even as the millions of dollars he embezzled from the country’s coffers continue to be restored.

Yet, for all his failings as a leader, Abacha understood something that so many people fail to grasp at an elementary level.

He had an understanding of the times

Between 1960 and 1993, there were 9 coups in Nigeria, with 6 resulting in the toppling of the incumbent government.

Out of the 6 successful coups, Abacha was involved in the planning and execution of 5 of them.

In fact, it can be said that the only coups that failed were the ones Abacha didn’t help plan.

Was this a consequence of Abacha’s wisdom as a master strategist?

No. I believe it had more to do with his intuitive understanding of the times.

The Bible says, “The children of this world are in their generation wiser than the children of the light”

Possessing an understanding of the times is a key distinction between the wise and the fools. Unfortunately, a lot of good people have good intentions but lack this intuitive understanding that Abacha possessed.

So, how can you develop an intuitive understanding of the times?

Apart from your personal walk with God, which I believe is the most important criterion for developing an understanding of the times, here are 3 points from Abacha’s career that you can apply to your life for positive outcomes.

1. Learn to keep your emotions in check

Right now, there’s a lot of hype fueled by the current COVID-19 pandemic.

On one hand, you have the news media throwing out the daily number of deaths from Coronavirus.

On the other hand, you have experts and life coaches motivating you to take advantage of the global lockdown to learn new skills.

The problem with the two scenarios is that they force you to take reactive actions in fear.

Because of your constant consumption of the news, you are forced to live in a realm where fear and anxiety becomes your daily reality.

Because of the constant noise from the self-proclaimed gurus and life coaches, you find yourself reacting in “sheep mentality”, learning for its sake, when you could really benefit from keeping your eyes and ears open to the times.

In an interview, Ibrahim Babangida, former Nigerian military president was asked whether he could have predicted that Abacha would have ever become military head of state.

After dribbling around the question in his usual “Maradona” manner, Babangida admitted that he didn’t see it coming.

Why?

In all the times they had been together, the only side of Abacha that Babangida saw was the loyal soldier.

Abacha mastered his emotions.

He never, at any point, allowed his emotions to betray his ultimate ambitions or the slightest indication of interest in the country’s highest office.

You can never go wrong when you make equanimity your friend.

2. Be patient

In a world of fast cars, fast food and fast internet, everyone seems to forget the power of patience.

When you are patient, life-changing opportunities will eventually come your way.

When you’re patient, your faculties of perception are sharpened and you are more likely to position yourself to be a beneficiary of the times.

That’s why there’s a lot of wisdom in the Preacher’s words when he said, “The race is not to the swift…nor the battle to the strong…nor favor to the man of skill; but time and chance happen to them all”

Buka Suka Dimka and Sani Abacha were both conspirators in the July 1966 coup.

Both men were ambitious and thirsty for power.

Yet, it was Abacha who was seated in Aso Rock by 1996.

At that point, Dimka had been dead for 20 years after he had hastily hashed out a coup that ultimately proved abortive.

Abacha’s patience allowed him to read the times clearly. And as a result, chance seemed to partner with him at every decisive stage of his career.

3. Know when to be decisive

Some people appear to be models of patience, but deep down within their hearts, they are afraid of taking action.

After a season of waiting, there’s always a window of opportunity that time and chance will bring your way.

When such an opportunity arises, you need to be decisive.

After Babangida annulled the June 12, 1993 elections in Nigeria and installed a clueless interim government, I can imagine Abacha rubbing his hands in glee, hardly believing his luck.

It was like everything in his life had been leading up to that point.

Because of his understanding of the times, Abacha staged a bloodless coup that saw him installed as the Nigerian military head of state for the next 5 years.

Now, imagine if Abacha had chosen to be more patient.

That window of opportunity would have been closed and Nigeria may have been in a much better place today.

Stories like this will continue to play out in history, especially when evil men possess an intuitive understanding of the times.

May the Lord give you Understanding in these things.

Three Big Ideas: On Kingdom Economics, Risk Assessment, and, Being Interpreters

Big Idea #1 From me

If you’ve noticed, I’ve not written anything explicitly about the COVID-19 pandemic.

This doesn’t mean I’m trivializing the whole situation.

As a man of science, I’ve been taking necessary precautions to reduce the probability of being infected.

But as a man of science with a Christian worldview, here’s my two cents about the currently unfolding events:

1. God is a good God and He always has an agenda.

This means two things: (a) God did not cause the Coronavirus to happen. He’s not using the virus to punish the sins of humanity. Coronavirus is happening because we live in a fallen world. It’s the same thing that plays out when droughts, famine, fires, etc. happen. (b) Coronavirus did not catch God unawares. It’s not like God was planning something and then the virus came from nowhere to ruin his plans. No, God always has His Ultimate agenda and His agenda will always come to fruition.

2. God’s agenda and systems for executing His plans are robust.

This also means two things: (a) In times of certainty, there are absolutely zero downsides to being sensitive to His agenda, and, (b) In times of uncertainty (like this season), aligning with God’s system is the surest foundation upon which you can build your life. That’s the way the economics of God’s Kingdom works, as opposed to the world system which crashes as the slightest hint of unpredictability.

Big Idea #2 From Research

In the journal paper titled, “Violence Risk Assessment and Risk Communication”, Paul Slovic and his colleagues asked some mental health experts to determine whether it was safe to discharge a psychiatric patient, Mr. Jones, who had a history of violence.

The mental health experts were divided into two groups.

To experts in group 1, they were told that people similar to Mr. Jones had a 10% chance of being violent again after being discharged.

On the other hand, those in group 2 were told that out of every 100 patients similar to Mr. Jones, 10 were likely to be violent after being discharged.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

At the end of the experiment, experts who received information in the form of numbers (Group 2) were two times more likely than experts who received the same information in the form of percentages (Group 1) to deny the discharge.

Simply put, because of the way the information was presented to them, experts in Group 2 were twice as likely as experts in Group 1 to see Mr. Jones as a threat to society.

My key takeaway is that the motives of the information-bearer largely determines the manner in which information will be presented to you.

There’s an indication that if people want to play up the significance of a particular statistic, they are more likely to present it to you as raw numbers.

For instance, telling people “1 out of 1000 people who eat XYZ will get cancer” tends to be taken more seriously than saying “0.1% of people who eat XYZ will get cancer”.

Be wise in your information consumption during this period.

Big Idea #3 From the Bible

2 Chronicles 26:5 says, “And he sought God in the days of Zechariah, who had understanding in the visions of God: as long as he sought the LORD, God made him prosper”

The distinguishing factor in Zechariah’s life was his understanding in the visions of God.

This doesn’t merely mean that Zechariah could see visions and dream up dreams.

It’s deeper than that.

It means Zechariah was in tune with God’s agenda per time and was able to interpret this agenda to king Uzziah, who is turn took appropriate actions and ended up prosperous.

In times of uncertainty, the world is always searching for interpreters who can make sense of the times and seasons.

Understand: Trends will pass, fads will wither, but those who can interpret God’s agenda will remain irreplaceable.

May the LORD give you understanding in these things

The Law of Exuberance: Abundant Potential is Always Bubbling Within You!

The first of the 7 indisputable laws of Potential Crystallization is what I call the Law of Exuberance.

The Law of Exuberance states, ‘There is an abundance of lively potentials and possibilities bubbling within and around you.’

In the world of computer programming, the concept of open-source software intrigues me every time.

Here’s how it works:

From time to time, brilliant programmers spend countless hours perfecting a software that is designed to solve a problem.

According to the laws of demand and supply, money flows wherever solutions to problems are. Therefore, it follows logic that whenever there’s a software that can solve a specific problem, the creators should charge people money for the benefit of using the said software to solve their problems. And that is what normally plays out in the normal marketplace.

But it’s at this juncture that the concept of open-source software makes an unexpected detour.

Rather than ask the users to pay money as the software is utilized, these programmers do the exact opposite – they share the program’s source code, blueprints, and documentation freely with anybody that is interested in it. That’s tantamount to spending years of research creating a drug that can cure cancer, only to show everybody how to create it themselves in 10 minutes!

Indeed, this kind of unhindered giving is only possible with a perfect understanding of the Law of Exuberance.

When the creators of these open-source software develop them, their dominant paradigm is not the fear that someone will steal their idea and profit from it.

Rather, on the contrary, their dominant paradigm is two-fold: First, they know that that there is an abundance of good ideas bubbling within and around them, from which they can always go back to draw from; secondly, they know that their software is not in the most perfect form yet, and that it takes input from others to bring the program to its full capabilities.

The immediate goal of these folks is not to make as much money as possible, but rather, to play their role as solution providers!

Perhaps, it is no wonder that these open-source programmers either go on to establish great IT companies, or more likely, get snapped up by multi-million-dollar companies who provide the money, the platform and the resources to keep on producing programs and software that attempt to solve even more ambitious problems.

The truth is that the vast majority of us were raised with a scarcity mentality.

We were taught that there is never going to be enough resources for everybody.

We were taught that there was only one way to win – finding a way to ensure that every other person lost.

We were taught to act as animals in the jungle – totally lacking in understanding and reacting solely on impulse.

We forget Proverbs 11:24 which says, ‘There is one who scatters yet increases more; And there is one who withholds more than is right, but it leads to poverty’

The more you give, the more likely you are to receive.

The less you flow into others, the more likely you are to stink with stagnation!

Unfortunately, living from a paradigm of scarcity is like having logs of wood in place of eyes. You will be rendered totally oblivious to the abundance that is already around and within you.

If you want to crystallize your potentials without any tears, your default belief system must be one of abundance.

Your outlook towards life must be abundance.

You need to deliberately acknowledge abundance in everything you do.

You need to deliberately acknowledge abundance in everything you say.

You need to deliberately acknowledge abundance in your thoughts and reasonings.

This is not a call to trick yourself into living a lie.

On the contrary, this is a call to acknowledge the real objective truth – that there is an abundance of potentials and possibilities around you!

Three Big Ideas: On Behavior Repertoires, Hedonic Consequences, and Revisiting History

Big Idea #1 From Me

At any given moment in time, there’s a range of behaviors you can perform.

I call this your behavioral repertoire.

Here’s an example that will help you visualize what I mean:

As you are seated/lying down in your bedroom, reading these words, you can decide to stand up and touch the wall closest to you. The probability of this happening is high, right?

Do you also know that you are capable of touching the ceiling with your feet?

But the probability of that behavior happening is very low. As a result, that behavior is collapsed within your repertoire. That’s why you probably can’t recall a time when you placed your feet on the ceiling in your room, even though it is something that is possible.

Now, let’s assume someone brings a double-bunk bed to your room and asked you to sleep on the top bunk. What would happen to the probability of you putting your feet on the ceiling (if you choose to)?

It will increase dramatically!

In life, some behaviors in your repertoire will bring you closer to your destiny, while others will collapse opportunities, thus taking you away from the destination God had prepared for you from the foundations of the world.

And still, some behaviors in your repertoire will never be expressed unless there are enabling factors in your immediate environment.

Here’s the wisdom in the paradigm:

Amplify those behaviors that will bring you closer to the fulfillment of your potential.
Extinguish those that will take you away from destiny.
Stay sensitive to discern whether a change is necessary in your environment for the right behaviors to be expressed.

Big Idea #2 From Research

In a study titled “Hedonic Consequences of Social Comparison: A Contrast of Happy and Unhappy Individuals”, researchers Sonja Lyubomirsky and Lee Ross asked people to teach children simple maths.

The people were divided into 2 groups.

For some, after they had taught the children, they were told ‘good job’. For others, in addition to being told they had done a good job, they were also told that other participants had done a better job.

After receiving feedback, the two groups of participants were asked to rate how happy they felt about their job performance.

Unsurprisingly, those who received the extra information in the form of comparison to an alternative group were less happy than those who were just told they did a good job.

My key takeaway is this: Don’t build your happiness on things that change. If you’re hell-bent on comparing yourself with others, you’d find that there’s always going to be someone wealthier, prettier, or more knowledgeable. If you must compare, compare yourself with where you’re coming from and where you’re headed to. Remind yourself: The story isn’t over yet!

Big Idea #3 From the Bible

Ecclesiastes 1:9, 11 says, “The thing that had been is that which shall be, and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there’s no new thing under the sun…There’s no remembrance of the former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that come after”

Every question you’d ever ask on this side of eternity has been answered in some shape or form by people in the past.

This reminds me of a quote by German poet, Friedrich von Schlegel, who said, ‘The historian is a prophet in reverse’

By being a student of history, you can identify patterns in the past that will position you for opportunities in the present and future, when they arise.

This principle applies to both your personal history and historical events in general.

History is valuable when it compounds. However, if your memory of it decays over time, it will be useless to you.

Unless you take deliberate effort to harness the power of revisiting history, you will always be caught up in the present moment without an understanding of your roles in it.

There’s a reason the men of Issachar (1 Chron 12:32) were called men of understanding…

May the Lord give you understanding in these things.